From a NASCAR Fan’s View
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I don’t know about you, but it is hard to believe there are only two weekends left in the 2026 regular NASCAR season. This part of the season seems to have flown by more quickly than in other years. I guess it could be because I have gotten older that the time seems to fly by, but I’m not so sure that is the reason. All I know for sure is that the Chase starts the week after Daytona next weekend, and there are a number of drivers hoping that these next two races add up to big points totals for them.
Unfortunately, there are only so many points to go around, and though some may still have a chance to make it into the Chase, there are more that will likely have to wait until at least next season to try again to make it in.
I’m not willing to crown him just yet, but Denny Hamlin probably has the best chance of being the number one seed going into the Chase. Even though he has appeared to struggle at times, he has been rock solid most of the latter part of the season, and this NASCAR fan thinks he will finish off strong. He only needs to have good, decent finishes for the next two weekends to clinch that number one seed. If he has disastrous races in the next two, he could be in trouble, but the chances of that happening are very low.
It would also depend on how those three drivers closest to him in points fare. Ryan Blaney is 115 points behind going into the race here at the Magic Mile. A couple of wins for him and real disasters for Hamlin (like finishing last both weekends) could make the final results very close. The points separation between the others in the top four right now is only 23 points. That doesn’t give a lot of breathing room for Ryan Blaney, Ty Gibbs, and Tyler Reddick. Blaney is twelve points ahead of Gibbs and only twenty-three ahead of Reddick. Of all that is going on in the top four, the rest are needing them to all have bad luck for the next two races to even think about getting close and we all know that isn’t going to happen.
Just considering the points at the present time, the top four are pretty much going to stay the top four. They may swap positions around, but in my opinion, I don’t honestly expect anyone different to move into the top four positions. That being said, the rest of the top sixteen in points are probably not going to change either. I say that knowing that Daytona is next week and just about anything is possible. Like I said though, I don’t expect it.
Ryan Preece is fifty points behind SVG. SVG is sixteenth in points, and he really can’t afford to have a bad race either at the Magic Mile or Daytona if he wants to stay qualified for the Chase. If anyone is precariously sitting on the bubble, that would be SVG. He doesn’t have much room left for a bad finish.
The top seven have clinched a spot in the Chase. That means all four of the JGR Toyotas will be in the Chase no matter what. Taking a reality check, there are four Toyotas that could be racing for the Championship at the end of the Chase. In fact, there are six that may have the chance to be in the top four when it comes down to it. Still, there is no easy road for any of them because of the way the Chase format is set up; no one can afford to have a bad day at the races.
Now, I realize I have spent a lot of time talking about the Toyotas. That is mostly because they have been the better performers for most of this season. That doesn’t by any means suggest that there aren’t others that can be in the hunt when it comes down to crunch time. That would discount the great performances Ryan Blaney has had over these last weeks of the season so far. He has been running consistently strong, and I really expect him to continue to do so. Joey Logano and Chris Buescher are two other Fords that must be considered to be in the hunt once the chase begins.
I have to admit that the Chevys have somewhat confused me. I know they have been adapting to the new body style, but even when it looks like they are getting a grip on it, they finish badly. I mean, did anyone really expect Kyle Larson and William Byron to have no wins this season? I know I didn’t expect that to happen. I thought each of them would have at least one win apiece. Instead, they have continued to struggle to carry a good day all the way to the end of a race. I hate to admit it, but unless their fortunes change when the Chase begins, I’m not counting them out, but I am not counting them in either. I do believe they will both make the Chase, but I am not so sure they will make a good showing. They are not the only Chevys that will be contending in the Chase, and I could be in for the shock of the century if they all of a sudden find the speed and balance that propels them to the front and possible multiple wins.
The New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a very challenging track with hardly any banking, and I expect those that can turn the fastest laps on the long runs could end up at the front and even in Victory Lane. I’m not saying that will be a Chevy, but then again, it could be…
Hey, this is Russ and that’s my view… See ya next time.
All views expressed are strictly the opinion of the writer
© August 23, 2026 – all rights reserved
Rusty Norman, Nascarfansview.com, and PodCastNorm Dot Com
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