episode 2636-It’s Chase Race Seven At Phoenix  

From a NASCAR Fan’s View

Yeah, the title says it all about this race day. It is Chase Race 7, and it is another day of unknowns when it comes to how the standings will look when it is over. Many thought Kyle Larson would be falling from the points lead last weekend as we all watched him fade from running up front to almost falling out of the top ten at the finish of the race at Charlotte. Instead, when the day was done, he had increased his points lead. Okay, it wasn’t by much, but it was still an unexpected gain.

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Today’s race could spell trouble for the current points leader, Larson. He starts twenty-second, well behind those in hot pursuit of him and the points lead.

There are two ways to look at the points situation as the Chase is winding down to its final four races. One is that Kyle Larson cannot afford to have a bad day at the races. If he has a bad day, his position in the points could change drastically since the points situation is beginning to really tighten up, especially in the top five or six spots. Larson and sixth place are separated by only ninety-two points. He is only 49 points ahead of second-place Denny Hamlin. Sixth-place Logano is a hefty 92 points back, but with four races left in the Chase, that isn’t an insurmountable task. And remember, Joey starts on the front row today. Like I just said, a really bad day for Larson could shake things up dramatically.

Ryan Blaney won the pole, so he and his teammate Logano will lead the field to green. Blaney sits fifth in the points, 85 points behind Larson. That may seem like a lot to make up, but if things go down the tubes for Larson and Blaney wins, well… you know what that could mean.

As this fan looks at the starting lineup, five of the strongest Toyotas are starting third through seventh. Two of those five have a lot of points to make up, but once again I have to mention that bad-day-for-Larson thing.

I keep bringing up the bad-day thing because it is the one big reason the points race could take a big shift. If all the top competitors have strong finishes and Larson has that really bad one, it’s hard to say what could happen in the remaining races. The other thing about those five Toyotas is they are all related. Four of them are the entire JGR garage, and the fifth is Tyler Reddick of 23XI, also associated with JGR. The only one of those that is pretty much out of the Chase is Ty Gibbs, but he has been running well enough to win. He could be today’s dark horse, and depending on how the rest of those five finish, along with those two Fords on the front row, well, that could spell the beginning of the demise of Larson and him going from the leader to an also-ran for the Championship.

From this fan’s view, the biggest problem Larson has in retaining the lead in the points is where he is starting from. Starting way back in the pack at twenty-second, could hold several reasons why he could have that “bad day.”

As a NASCAR fan, I can’t help but wonder if Chase Briscoe might continue his run of wins and make it three in a row today at Phoenix. There is no doubt he has been running very strong, and the last three races have shown him finishing second once and first twice. He has made a big turn in his season, and today’s race, along with the next three, could spell trouble for the rest.

Let’s see. I’ve already mentioned Ty Gibbs and Chase Briscoe, and even a little about Denny Hamlin. Hamlin is definitely part of the ongoing story of The Chase, but there is another that has been struggling and just hasn’t made it back to taking a win since Darlington. Of course, you know I’m talking about Christopher Bell. He hasn’t been running all that bad, he just hasn’t finished first at taking the checkered flag. It seems there is always something that comes up and prevents him from taking the win. I don’t know, perhaps this could be his day? Well, perhaps it could.

I’ve spent a lot of time talking about the possibilities of the few, but there are 37 cars and drivers running this race. Ryan Blaney starting on the pole. Joey Logano next to him on that front row. Those five Toyotas right behind them and a whole host of others that want to take the win at Phoenix. There are a lot of possibilities for this one. Some are stronger possibilities than others, but depending on how things go for the top drivers in the points, someone is going to come away in better shape than they are going in. Which of them it will be won’t be known until it’s over.

So, what do you think? Is the points race going to be shaken up, possibly in a major way, or stay pretty much the same? Yeah, I believe that, too…

Hey, this is Russ and that’s my view… See you next time…